The Philippine stock market plunged -0.42% to 7,408.44 on the last day of week two of August - which some investors call AuGHOST month due to anticipated market selloff caused by investors who believe it's a bad month for equities. It's not only felt here in the Philippines, but also outside. In fact, USA Today has reported "why investors in the US expect 'August Angst' to come."
Local stocks reporters refer to the "ghost month" as a "period in the Lunar calendar when Chinese investors avoid making big-ticket investments or other big moves like getting married or moving to a new house". (Inquirer) Hence, it could mean that next week will be the actual beginning of this dreaded event. Still, the overlap of these periods might just mean one thing, stocks will possibly go down.
Local stocks reporters refer to the "ghost month" as a "period in the Lunar calendar when Chinese investors avoid making big-ticket investments or other big moves like getting married or moving to a new house". (Inquirer) Hence, it could mean that next week will be the actual beginning of this dreaded event. Still, the overlap of these periods might just mean one thing, stocks will possibly go down.
When most stocks turn red, it may mean stocks are being sold at discounted prices; however, it may also mean stocks are just adjusting from its overvalued prices. At such discounts, value investors hunt for good stocks to buy based on some metrics like price/earnings ratio (P/E), price-to-book ratio (P/B), debt-equity ratio, price/earnings to growth ratio (PEG), earnings per share ratio (EPS), and free cash flow.
I talked about value investors. Who are they?
Investopedia defines it as:
Value investors actively seek stocks of companies that they believe the market has undervalued. They believe the market overreacts to good and bad news, resulting in stock price movements that do not correspond with the company's long-term fundamentals. The result is an opportunity for value investors to profit by buying when the price is deflated.
Typically, value investors select stocks with lower-than-average price-to-book or price-to-earnings ratios and/or high dividend yields.
We are now wading through the middle of AuGHOST month. And depending on each own's appetite, we could either be buying discounted valuable stocks or selling under-performing stocks.
Hence, to help you partly decide which stocks to look out for, I took the initiative to collect the current P/E ratios of all companies monitored by the COL Financial through its investment guide. I obtained all P/E data, as updated last August 14 (today), from The Wall Street Journal online.
(If you wish to skip this short refresher, please jump to the bottom of this page.)
The P/E ratio is a measure of how attractive a potential stock (company) is relative to its competitors. It divides the stock's share price by its earnings (kita) per share which tell us how much investors are willing to shell out for a peso (1 Php) of earnings.
So, kung mataas ang P/E ratio, it may mean na:
- With respect to the SHARE PRICE, in demand ang stock na ito for expected positive (good) results (usually higher profits and margins, lower expenditures, increased market share, removal of poorly performing CEO, acquisitions, etc), or
- Hyped lang ang stock (probably because of maling akala or too much trust in the company) which means it was overvalued, which could lead to the consequence in the next bullet,
- With respect to EARNINGS, mababa ang earnings kaya mataas ang P/E ratio or di mameet ng company ang earnings target, kaya ang result, some investors when they see na nag-exceed na sa ceiling P/E nila yung stock nila, they resort to selling.
Kung mababa naman ang P/E ratio, pwedeng:
- With respect to the SHARE PRICE, di siya pinapansin ng mga investors kasi baka lubog sa utang or baka may mga bad news siya before (scandals, accidents, etc.) na hindi pa makalimutan ng mga investors
- With respect to the EARNINGS, surprising ang earnings ng company na na-exceed niya yung pace ng share price, which may possibly mean good to buy ang stock na ito. Example, stock A is trading with a P/E of 20 pero kanina lang nag-announce siya na nasurpass ng company yung earnings target, so automatically updated P/E for it would adjust to a lower than 20 kasi the denominator part of 20/1 (which is 1, may have increased to 1.2 or 1.4 or kahit ilan basta mataas). In this case, investors who spot stocks with low current P/E ratios and saw earnings to increase would usually buy these stocks.
Which leads me to these Tables of Updated P/E ratios of PSE companies by industry. Because we're in the middle of the selloff month, these tables may serve as guide in purchasing or selling stocks on the basis of the P/E ratio.
Note, however, that due diligence must be practiced at all times when doing so...
....because a company's financials are not only measured by the P/E ratio. The P/E ratio has limitations and does not provide a complete insight for one to arrive at a decision.
First, we can only compare P/E ratios of companies belonging in the same industry. Why? Because a mining company relying on mineral exports has a different way of earning versus a telecom company relying on broadband and landline subscriptions. We can't just assume their P/Es are comparable.
Another important limitation is that the P/E ratio heavily depends on data provided by the companies themselves which may be prone to manipulation. The share price is highly dictated by the market; but, a company may choose not to disclose its poor earnings in an AuGHOST month for fear of investor panic or may do so para bara-bara na bagsak. There are many scenarios associated with P/E ratios, hence it's powerful, but just like any data, if COL Financial or any stock broker fails to update earnings info released by companies, the P/E ratios provided may seem unconvincing (kaya I made it a point to put in updated data as of August 14, 'cause I know some investors use P/E ratios as bases and it's a MEGA SALEEEEEE! Hehe!). This, however, urged me to make another post showing P/E ratios by industry but as provided by our very own Philippine Stock Exchange, Inc. to give you a balanced approach - one from foreign analyses, another from our very own exchange. You might notice that there may be some differences in the P/E ratios, which explains P/E ratio's limitations.
Lastly, P/E ratio is limited in that the companies with higher debt may be unattractive to investors, thus sometimes getting lower P/E. However, when the business is humahataw, the company with higher debt (lower P/E) may actually have won the industry over with more earnings as it took higher risks (probably due to speedy expansion and good fiscal management) which gave it higher returns. So, it's best to conduct wise judgment by studying the other basic metrics in investing.
Now that you've learned a bit about one financial ratio which may serve important in arriving at a good investment decision, do take a look at the current mid-August P/E ratios per industry. I didn't add all companies listed in the PSE as I only chose what were highlighted by COL Financial in its own Investment Guide. Caveat!
1. BANKS AND FINANCIAL
Side Note:
(from Sir Mark Mataranas, Investment in the Philippines Market - Tips and Tricks)
(from Sir Mark Mataranas, Investment in the Philippines Market - Tips and Tricks)
For BANKS:
Banks' balance sheets consist mostly of financial assets with varying degrees of liquidity, reason book value is a good proxy for the value of a banking stock. Assuming the assets and liabilities closely approximate their reported value, the base value for a bank should be book value. For any premium above that, investors are paying for future growth and excess earnings. Seldom do banks trade for less than book, but if they do, the bank’s assets could be distressed. Typically, big banks have traded in the two or three times book range over recently..
That's why comparing similar banks on a price-to-book (P/B) measure can be a good way to make sure you’re not overpaying for a bank stock.
Of course there are other important factors/valuation to consider for banks like...- ROE/ROA (kind of de facto standards for gauging bank profitability)- net interest margin (looks at net interest income as a percentage of average earning assets. Virtually all banks report net interest margins because it measures lending profitability. You’ll see a wide variety of net interest margins depending on the type of lending a bank engages in, but most banks’ margins fall into the 3 percent to 4 percent range..- Efficiency ratio (measures non-interest expense, or operating costs as a percentage of net revenues. Basically, it tells you how efficiently the bank is managed.)- strong equity base (simplest metric to check is equity-to-asset ratio) and the ability to grow revenues at a steady pace.- there are some more kaya P/E alone is less significant for banks.
For banks, doing relative valuation with P/BV is a reasonable approximation of the value of the business compared to other industry..it's a good starting point for seeking out quality bank stocks. A solid bank trading at less than 2x BV is often worth a closer look..but there are banks that can trade above 2 or 3 like the big 3s (BPI/MBT/BDO usually commands above 2x BV..lower than that may mean a potential big bargain). This ratio is also a good approximation that you are not overpaying for a bank stocks.Check for consistent solid ROE..also, not to low ROE (or too high ROE) from avg is good starting point. Above avg is good.
There are other relevant data to check for detailed analysis but ROE & P/BV are a good starting point.
2. COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL
3. CONGLOMERATES
4. CONSUMER
5. GAMING
6. MINING, POWER, TELECOMS
7. PROPERTY
Disclaimer:
I don't declare myself a stock market analyst nor do I believe that I am a mentor when it comes to stock investing. I am just a learning student trying to help in the best way I can, so that anyone can understand why some stocks perform greatly while others lag behind. I really wish you learned something from this post po. If you enjoyed this post, I would really appreciate it po if you like my humble blog hehe.
